Lupine Publishers | Scholarly Journal Of Psychology And Behavioral Sciences
Introduction
The
Covid19 pandemic has been a hybrid of 3 components, a highly contagious virus
SARSCov2 [1], a culture of fear leading to risk aversion [2], and an escalating
sovereign debt overhang [3] risking austerity and loss of ‘non-viable’ jobs.
Currently a ‘second wave’ involving all three components is underway.
Followership is a recent notion within the leadership genre [4], with recent
literature emphasising the effect followers have on moderating behaviour of
leaders, through a combination of stable and dynamic factors, in keeping with
the social impact theory [5]. Followers are expected to cultivate aptitudes to
function in a subordinate role, whilst assisting ‘the Leader’ in enacting his
or her wishes. Historically followers were volunteers to a cause, for example
‘people of the way’ who followed the teachings of Jesus, accepting the task of
persuading others towards ‘God’s kingdom on earth’ There was no expectation of
monetary or social gain, but a real risk of martyrdom [6]. However, over the
last century followership has become professionalised, for example in medicine
[7], with followers seeking employment in public services, charities or
academia; motivated by monetary and career ambitions including the prospect of
civic honours. Despite senior followers often having specialist expertise,
which leaders have to depend on, they can suffer reputational damage on being
demoted or transferred from their post if found wanting. In return, it is [or
at least was], expected for leaders to ‘carry the can’ when actions by
followers caused unfortunate outcomes. Consequently, relationships between
leaders and their followers can be tense or ambivalent [8].
Known Knowns
Prior
to Covid19, western governments had developed elaborate plans to manage
pandemics. Early intervention was seen as crucial for avoiding exponential
contagion and associated economic losses. Furthermore, ‘event 201’ - a
scenario-based exercise was conducted in October 2019 organised by the World
Economic Forum, the Gates Foundation and the Johns Hopkins University. This
meeting concluded that robust organisational links should be created between
public health agencies, universities and private logistics firms [9]. However,
despite attendance of senior bureaucrats from all relevant stakeholders, no
follow-through occurred; perhaps due to recent pandemics [SARS and EBOLA]
petering out with negligible western deaths, probably compounded by public
health bodies undergoing ‘restructuring’ with associated job insecurity.
Unknown Knowns [Pre-Covid19]
Leadership
training in public services have tended to involve ‘in house’ expertise, rarely
utilising insights from the financial sector. One key market risk analyst is
Nasim Taleb; who coined the term ‘black swan’; events which are completely
unpredictable but highly consequential, bursting bubbles of irrational
investment; leading to major restructuring of businesses and public sector
organisations. Taleb went on to write a follow up book; ‘Antifragilie; the
things that gain from disorder’ [10]; the idea being that unexpected disruption
revels fragile teams and organisations; which typically fold at an early stage
during a black swan event, whereas other teams and organisations survive and
thrive. Public services, charities and academia have largely ignored Taleb’s
work, perhaps considering themselves protected from market forces, with posts
guaranteed through public funding. Although these organisations have repeatedly
discussed the need for ‘transformation’, this has not involved building
antifragility. Furthermore, there is limited recognition that talented staff
move jobs, to work with antifragilie minded teams and leaders.
On
selection of senior followers, Warren Buffet [Berkshire Hathaway Investments]
described his strategy in recruiting senior staff being based on 3 values;
energy, intelligence and, most of all, integrity [11], suggesting that recruits
without integrity could ‘kill’ organisations. Integrity, defined by C.S. Lewis
as ‘doing the right thing when no one is watching’, is arguably not necessarily
a quality foremost in public sector recruitment, where a talent to cut costs
and capacity to remain ‘on message’ perhaps being more sought after. The other
book relevant to followership is by Paul Babiac and Robert Hare; ‘Snakes in
suits; when psychopaths go to work’ [12]. They describe 2 types of damaging
followers, firstly those who use the organisational hierarchy to maximise
power, and secondly, ‘enablers’ who enforce instructions of their leaders using
bullying [13]. The consequences of these individuals include loss of trust
between employees, loss of productivity and litigation when evidence of
malfeasance comes to light.
Known Unknowns [Post Covid First Wave]
The
main observation within the first 2 months of the pandemic was the failure by
western public health bodies to communicate risks and safeguards to the public
[14]. Perhaps they were awaiting guidance from the World Health Organisation
[WHO], which delayed calling the pandemic, having ignored warnings on
human-to-human transmission for a crucial 3 week period in January. These
bodies were perhaps also awaiting orders from their political leaders, despite
these individuals being conflicted on economic preservation and maintaining
public popularity. However, public health bodies in the east, with experience
of the original SARS pandemic, reacted promptly warning the public on the
emerging problem alongside organising testing, contact tracing and quarantining
of the vulnerable [15]. The other finding has been the gap between promises made
by western politicians on testing and contact tracing compared to actual
delivery of these targets. Despite the pre-pandemic protocols, public health
has been unable to rapidly organise testing for the virus, alongside failures
of contact tracing [16]. Early involvement of firms with track records on
logistics was absent, alongside not involving private labs to increase testing
capacity. It appears politicians were not aware of practical problems with
delivery either due to subordinates not advising them of facts on the ground or
due to followers wanting to please their masters with good news [including cost
minimisation]. The decision by NHS England to discharge around 25,000 elderly
hospital patients in April to care home beds before routine testing for
SARSCOv2 was available [17] probably resulted in 50% of care homes contracting
Covid19, with around 15,000 elderly deaths. This decision is awaiting legal
review as there was no attempt to separate potentially infective people from
the other residents, for example by setting up separate care home floors with
dedicated staffing. The rationale for bed clearance was to ‘protect the NHS’
although in reality NHS hospitals did not come close to becoming overwhelmed
[18]. Nevertheless, over 90% of care home residents were promptly placed on a
combination of ‘Do not resuscitate’ orders and ‘Emergency health care’ plans,
both reducing the possibility for active treatment of acute illness episodes.
NHS England have denied influencing GP practices to carry this action and the
government has ordered the Care Quality Commission to investigate blanket
imposition of these orders in England [19].
Unknown Unknowns [Post ‘Second Wave’]
The
main unknown pertains to how the virus will exert its effects on the population
through continuing mutation, partly caused by attempts to degrade it by the
immune system. There is concern that infectivity will increase [20], with long
term disability affecting the heart, brain and lungs among Covid19 survivors,
including those with ‘sub clinical’ initial symptoms [21]. Furthermore,
uncertainty remains on effectiveness of the current crop of 11 vaccines
undergoing human trials, especially on preventing community spread of
infection, as viral carriage in the upper respiratory tract post vaccination is
not guaranteed [22]. It is anticipated that spikes of infection will continue
for the next 12 months resulting in local ‘circuit braking’ restrictions,
although uncertainty remains as to the efficacy of these measures, partly due
to less than full public adherence. Partially tested vaccines can be authorized
for emergency use, but continuing concerns about delivery, storage and public
uptake remain [23]. An evidence-based case for population wide prophylaxis
using Vitamin D and Zinc supplementation has been made to public health bodies
[24,25] in the face of commercial interests of vaccine and drug manufacturers.
Conclusion
Covid19
has cast a harsh light on weaknesses of public health bodies in the west and
the resulting risk to populations they were meant to protect. It seems unfair
to solely blame their political masters, as they are highly dependent on
competent civil servant followers, who monitor situations on a week-to-week
basis and take operational decisions. Differential roles of elected leaders and
their subordinate followers needs redrawing, to avoid loss of public trust due
to failures in delivering on promises. Followers must speak ‘truth to power’ on
realities on the ground, whilst focusing on building ‘anti-fragility’ within
organisational teams, utilising scenario planning and stress testing,
thereafter by updating and simplifying practice algorithms. This would free up
leaders to communicate with the public with confidence, whilst formulating the
future direction of travel [‘the vision’]. This demarcation of roles would
produce less conflict and better service delivery going forward, despite
recurring ‘black swan’ events. Furthermore, ethical responsibilities of
followers need redefining; with an emphasis on duty of care and candour towards
the public who ultimately fund them through taxation. This includes admission
of mistakes and the courage to ‘whistle blow’ if concerns on public safety are
not being acted on by their political masters. Furthermore, capacity for
integrity - described as essential by Warren Buffett - will need to be
prioritised in recruitment post Covid19.
For more Lupine Publishers Open Access Journals Please visit our website: https://lupinepublishersgroup.com/
For more Psychology And Behavioral Sciences Please Click
Here: https://lupinepublishers.com/psychology-behavioral-science-journal/
To Know more Open Access Publishers Click on Lupine Publishers
Follow on Linkedin : https://www.linkedin.com/company/lupinepublishers
Follow on Twitter : https://twitter.com/lupine_online
No comments:
Post a Comment